Primarily tsunami modeling of the Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula earthquake on July 29, 2025

Abstract

An Mw 8.8 megathrust earthquake along the Kuril–Kamchatka Trench near the eastern coast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia, on July 29, 2025, triggered a tsunami across the Pacific Ocean with a reported maximum wave height of 19 m. In this study, we perform numerical modeling of the tsunami generated by this event and analyze six observed tsunami waveforms recorded at DART tide gauges. Additionally, Fourier and wavelet analyses are conducted on these records to identify the dominant period range of the tsunami. Our simulated waveforms show a good fit with the recorded sea level data. Wavelet–Fourier analysis shows the tsunami generated a coherent 30–70 min signal, with station-specific peaks at 32, 43, and 64 min across the DART stations. The comparison of maximum simulated tsunami wave amplitudes and arrivals shows reasonable agreement with recorded data, implying that the earthquake source model is capable of accurately reproducing the tsunami. These findings confirm that Kamchatka megathrust events can generate basin-wide tsunamis with coherent long-period energy, supporting existing tsunami hazard assessments, and highlighting the value of dominant period analysis for Pacific warning systems.

Keywords

Bibliographic record

BibTeX Citation

@article{Rashidi2026primarilytsunami,
  author = {Rashidi, A. and Dutykh, D. and Mokhtari, M.},
  title = {Primarily tsunami modeling of the Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Peninsula earthquake on July 29, 2025},
  journal = {Nat. Hazards},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {122},
  number = {10},
  pages = {450},
  doi = {10.1007/s11069-026-08198-3},
  abstract = {An Mw 8.8 megathrust earthquake along the Kuril–Kamchatka Trench near the eastern coast of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia, on July 29, 2025, triggered a tsunami across the Pacific Ocean with a reported maximum wave height of 19 m. In this study, we perform numerical modeling of the tsunami generated by this event and analyze six observed tsunami waveforms recorded at DART tide gauges. Additionally, Fourier and wavelet analyses are conducted on these records to identify the dominant period range of the tsunami. Our simulated waveforms show a good fit with the recorded sea level data. Wavelet–Fourier analysis shows the tsunami generated a coherent 30–70 min signal, with station-specific peaks at 32, 43, and 64 min across the DART stations. The comparison of maximum simulated tsunami wave amplitudes and arrivals shows reasonable agreement with recorded data, implying that the earthquake source model is capable of accurately reproducing the tsunami. These findings confirm that Kamchatka megathrust events can generate basin-wide tsunamis with coherent long-period energy, supporting existing tsunami hazard assessments, and highlighting the value of dominant period analysis for Pacific warning systems.},
  keywords = {tsunami, Mw 8.8 Kamchatka earthquake, tsunami numerical modeling, DART, tsunami waveforms},
  publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
  issn = {0921-030X}
}